From Nezavisimaya gazeta, May 13, 2025, p. 1. Complete text:
Uzbekistan and Iran are planning to increase trade turnover from $500 million to $2 billion. During Uzbek Prime Minister Abdulla Aripov’s official visit to Iran, at the conclusion of his talks with Iran’s First Vice-President Mohammad Reza Aref, four strategic agreements were signed and an intergovernmental road map for bilateral cooperation in 2025-2027 was approved. This is part of a broader agenda for strengthening interaction between the two countries, which are playing a key role in Central and Southwest Asia.
Experts believe that this is a significant move toward the creation of a free trade zone (FTZ) in the Central Asia-Iran format and eventually toward the formation of a regional economic union.
Governmental delegations from Central Asian countries recently visited Tehran. Uzbek Prime Minister Abdulla Aripov arrived in the Iranian capital the day before. During his visit, four strategically important agreements encompassing trade, industry, the agroindustrial complex and religious and cultural cooperation were signed.
One of the key documents was a protocol between Iran’s Industry, Mining and Trade Ministry and Uzbekistan’s Investment, Industry and Trade Ministry. It aims to facilitate the implementation of a preferential trade agreement that was signed earlier, specifically to reduce tariffs and remove barriers to the free movement of goods. Iranian media have described the agreements as an important step on the path toward creating an FTZ between the [two] countries, stressing that they may eventually help form a closer regional economic union.
A key takeaway from the visit was an Iranian-Uzbek business forum, attended by more than 100 businesspeople, where a portfolio of investment projects and trade agreements worth about $1 billion was formed.
The road map provides for concrete measures to deepen bilateral interaction – from attracting mutual investment to expanding people-to-people contacts. Special attention will be given to the development of transport and logistics solutions, including the creation of multimodal corridors, as well as energy and water resources management projects.
“Uzbekistan’s and Iran’s attention to transit corridors is natural. Recent events, including the escalation of conflicts between Pakistan and Afghanistan, as well as between Pakistan and India [see Vol. 77, No. 18-19, p. 21], show that these conflicts are impeding the plans of Central Asian countries and Russia to implement major communication projects, such as the Trans-Afghan Railway Corridor,” Bakhtiyor Ergashev, director of the Man’o [sic; Ma’No – Trans.] Center for Research Initiatives, told NG. “These projects are encountering difficulties over violence and disagreements. Although it is possible to finance the Trans-Afghan project, taking into account its high costs, the safety of cargo shipments remains an open question. This has always been the Achilles’ heel of any route, regardless of its configuration.”
Therefore, the expert believes that transit corridor projects from Central Asia or via Central Asia to the south – such as the North-South transit corridor – will always be susceptible to negative impacts. This is precisely why the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline project has ended up in limbo. No one can guarantee that this will not happen again. Amid such instability, the question arises: How to develop transit corridors and gas pipeline projects?
“Uzbek Prime Minister Abdulla Aripov’s visit to Iran is an indication that this vector [of cooperation] is currently stable: Wars or air attacks between Israel and Iran are not expected in the foreseeable future. Uzbekistan’s cautious and pragmatic approach implies the existence of certain guarantees,” Ergashev said.
According to the expert, Iran is acting holistically. Eight years ago, under president [Ebrahim] Raisi, the “Look East” concept was developed for Central Asia, Afghanistan and Pakistan as key countries in Iran’s foreign economic activity. The countries of the region are also ready for such interaction, even despite the sanctions regime against Iran.
However, Ergashev believes that if a nuclear deal 2.0 is reached between the US and Iran, talks on which have resumed, sanctions might ease. That would be yet another strong incentive for the countries of the region to develop economic cooperation with Tehran.
For its part, Iran has something to offer the Central Asian countries. Iran has significant economic potential. It is a country with a population of over 80 million, developing fundamental scientific research and an economy that can adapt to sanctions. Even though problems remain, Iran has proved itself able to survive in economic isolation, and if sanctions are lifted, the Iranian market will become an important vector for Central Asian businesses.
This is not only about Kazakh grain supplies, but also more interesting projects. For example, deliveries of agricultural machinery and road [building] equipment, as well as the digitization of transit processes.
“Iran is willing to offer and receive goods and work on a mutually beneficial basis. A free trade zone between the Eurasian Economic Union (EaEU) and Iran, which will become a powerful incentive for the development of both Iran and the entire Eurasian economy, is especially important, since Iran is a key element of Eurasian transcontinental transit corridors. Even the Southern Railway Corridor – Central Asia-Iran-Turkey – which is not yet loaded to capacity, has huge potential and can be implemented through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). This is because this route is cheaper than the multimodal Middle Corridor (the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route). The Southern Railway Corridor has good prospects. And there is also the North-South [International Transport Corridor], where Iran is a key country, along with Pakistan. There are plenty of opportunities,” Bakhtiyor Ergashev said.
It is equally important to develop a free trade zone with the Central Asian countries. Only two of the five Central Asian countries – Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan – are EaEU members. It would be logical to expand the scope of cooperation to [include] a region that can act as a single entity in economic relations with Iran, which would become a major step forward. It is especially important to get Turkmenistan, which has a land border with Iran, involved in this process.
“If Greater Central Asia proposes an FTZ model to Iran, that will be a precedent that will undoubtedly open up new horizons for mutually beneficial cooperation. This format, where Central Asia and Iran work within an FTZ, has huge potential and should be implemented. This will also contribute to strengthening Central Asia’s intrastate community and to enhancing its independence,” Bakhtiyor Ergashev stressed in conclusion.