Why Tehran Hasn’t Joined Conflict With Ukraine

From Republic, July 28, 2026. Complete text:

An Iranian ship was attacked in the Caspian Sea on July 25 [see Vol. 78, No. 30-31, p. 18].

An explanation for this strike was given at the highest level. [Ukrainian] President Vladimir Zelensky stated that Tehran had been attacking Ukraine for a long time, since back in 2022, when it delivered thousands of drones and a license to produce them to Moscow.

But Tehran doesn’t think so. Senior officials in Tehran have emphasized that “any attack on Iran always comes at a high cost,” and Ukraine, like the US and Israel, will soon realize this.

Kiev reacted to this expression of discontent with bewilderment. The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry called Iran’s threats unfounded and baseless, because Iran is fueling Moscow’s conflict with its weapons. This means that it has no right to “pretend to be a victim” and make “absurd references to the UN Charter.”

At the same time, the range of Iranian missiles covers the whole of Europe. Therefore, Tehran could launch a strike on any target in Kiev and other cities in Ukraine. Moreover, the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) do not have a missile defense system that could provide protection against them. Ukraine has begun to fear the arrival of Iranian missiles.

However, the visit of the Ukrainian delegation to the US led to an unexpected change in this situation. After [Zelensky’s] meeting at the White House, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrei Sibiga urgently called his Iranian counterpart and assured him that Kiev had no intention “to target civilian vessels or people.” Tehran noted that it, too, was not seeking escalation and demanded compensation for the damages incurred.

It is obvious that Washington does not want the Ukraine conflict to merge with the Iran one, but this is exactly what Kiev was trying to achieve. Here’s why:

If Tehran launched a missile strike on Ukraine, it would put it on par with the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), which is assisting Russia in its special military operation. On the other hand, the UAF would de facto be drawn into the American-Israeli military operation against Iran.

As a result, Kiev would join the American-Israeli coalition in its military confrontation with Iran. Tehran would thus join Moscow in achieving the goals of the special military operation in Ukraine. This would result in the unification of two fairly distant regional conflicts into one large global one.

To Washington, such a course of events is absolutely unacceptable. In the situation surrounding Ukraine, US President Donald Trump has long positioned himself as a mediator, an intermediary who attempts to bring the positions of two warring parties to a common denominator and achieve the signing of peace agreements. This is precisely how Washington has behaved during recent attempts to resolve other military conflicts – for example, between Thailand and Cambodia, India and Pakistan, and so on.

As for the Iran issue, the US is one of the parties to the ongoing armed conflict. And there are so far no prospects for its completion.

It should be noted that Tehran does not want to be drawn into a military conflict with Kiev, either. Firstly, they have enough of their own problems in the confrontation with the US and Israel. Secondly, the number of Iranian missiles is not unlimited, and Iran does not yet have a military assistance agreement with Russia (unlike the DPRK).

Washington’s reluctance to involve Iran in the Ukraine conflict has another explanation. This would be Tehran’s unconventional reaction to the military strikes it has received. The Iranians have not aimed to overcome the Israeli missile defense system known as the Iron Dome or to somehow strike at the US. Instead, Tehran has attacked American bases in the region regardless of the country in which they are located, as well as key infrastructure facilities of these relatively wealthy countries. Sooner or later, the losses they suffer will force them to express their dissatisfaction with Washington and demand that it end the war with Iran.

Let’s imagine if Tehran were drawn into the Ukraine conflict. In that case, Iranian missiles would not only fly at Ukraine, but also at US bases in Europe – from the closer ones in Bulgaria and Romania to the slightly more distant ones in Italy and Spain, and not excluding the American missile defense base opened in Poland in 2024.

The possibility of such a turn of events categorically does not suit the Americans. Therefore, the Ukrainian leadership’s plans to involve Iran were cancelled by Washington.

Kiev’s attention is now focused on Poland, where a Russian Kh-101 cruise missile has landed. Warsaw quickly said there was “no reason” to believe Poland was the target. But Kiev could use the very fact of a Russian missile’s arrival for its own purposes: to reduce growing anti-Ukrainian sentiment in Polish society.