Letter From the Editors

In September 2026, Russians will go to the polls to vote in regional and federal parliamentary elections – the first since the start of the “special operation” in Ukraine. For those keeping score at home, the only real battle right now is over third place. Since United Russia is guaranteed to cinch the top spot, and the RFCP hasn’t lost enough of its core electorate to cede second place, the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia, A Just Russia and Noviye Lyudi will go for the bronze. Experts predict it will come down to LDPR vs. NL, but A Just Russia isn’t giving up the fight just yet: Party leader Sergei Mironov is looking to tap into the “angry patriots” vote. While he’s toned down his rhetoric significantly compared to his “sledgehammer days” and brief bromance with PMC chief Prigozhin, Mironov is still tapping into his own military background, laying flowers on Paratroopers’ Day and meeting with soldiers’ families. “No matter how few veterans’ votes there may be, A Just Russia is fighting for every single one of them,” expert Konstantin Kalachov says in summary.

Still, most experts doubt A Just Russia will actually clear the 5% threshold to make it into the Duma. The same goes for Yabloko, the only party running on a peace platform. And its stance landed it in hot water this week, especially after Yabloko won the coveted second spot on the ballot, right after United Russia. While it was the fringe Rodina party that started the brouhaha, calling Yabloko members “traitors,” other establishment parties soon jumped into the fray. LDPR leader Leonid Slutsky even managed to kill two birds with one stone, calling Yabloko’s agenda another “treaty of Brest-Litovsk, which the Communists signed 100 years ago.” And just like that, Zyuganov is on the ropes!

But what effect is the actual war having on Russian voters, especially in light of Ukraine’s recent successful drone strikes against oil refineries and major online retailers? Klim Bakulin pulls out a Schrödinger’s cat scenario: Voters will either resort to “retrospective voting” – meaning ideological preferences do not play a role, but fulfilling specific promises does – or rally around the flag. He cites research from Spanish elections between 1988 and 2005, which shows that terrorist attacks usually boost the incumbent party’s electoral results.

With thousands of North African migrants storming the Spanish exclave of Ceuta this week, PM Pedro Sánchez may be wondering whether his political tenure will be the subject of such research down the line. But what looks like a desperate attempt by people with no prospects to find a better future in the EU may actually conceal some Byzantine intrigues, many note. Expert Nikolai Sukhov believes the breach could have been a tripartite conspiracy between Israel, Morocco, and the US, each of which has its own axe to grind with Madrid: “Washington is dissatisfied with Spanish intransigence, Israel with Madrid’s policy toward Gaza, and Rabat with the restoration of relations between Spain and Algeria.”

The incident also sparked tensions between Madrid and the EU. Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, already no fan of the Socialist Sánchez, went so far as to suggest removing Spain from the Schengen Area. What’s noteworthy is that no one in the EU rebuked her, and Finland actually supported the idea. So Spain is now apparently a pariah in the European family. According to Bakulin, this shows how fragile the global situation is: “You no longer need a war or an economic upheaval to upset the shaky balance in international relations; even a relatively small group of migrants can do that.”

In an editorial, NG writes: “As long as certain countries have freedom, stability and prosperity, those who live in states where these ‘goods’ are in short supply will strive to get there by hook or by crook.” The upshot is stark: the EU and Russia are grappling with the same unsolved civilizational challenge – migration – and it’s delusional to think either can solve it alone.