When Will Diplomatic Waffling Stop?

From Ekspert, Oct. 27, 2025, https://expert.ru/v-mire/kogda-ostanovyatsya-diplomaticheskie-kacheli/. Complete text:

Editors’ Note. – The visit by Kirill Dmitriyev, the Russian president’s special envoy [for investment and economic cooperation], to the US ended yesterday. Rep. Anna Paulina Luna received from him [a box of] candies with quotes from the Russian leader printed on the wrappers and called dialogue with Russia her No. 1 task. Kirill Dmitriyev’s visit took place after US President Donald Trump once again proposed a Russia-US summit, but quickly thought better of it [see Vol 77, No. 42‑43, pp. 3-6], and after that the US imposed new anti-Russian sanctions. International affairs experts told Ekspert that such diplomatic waffling is a sign that even though Donald Trump says he intends to achieve peace in Ukraine, his administration actually has no idea how to go about this.

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‘This waffling will continue as long as the parties have intentions and opportunities to achieve their goals.’

Vladimir Pavlov, deputy dean of the School of International Relations, research associate at the Russian Foreign Ministry’s Moscow State Institute of International Relations’ Institute of International studies. – Donald Trump as a businessman is set to make a deal. On the one hand, the Americans are trying to exert pressure, but on the other, they are setting all kinds of meetings – i.e., they are leveraging all available methods to freeze the conflict as soon as possible. Because this is simply in the interests of the opposite party. However, we have already seen what happens with such freezes, as exemplified by the Minsk process [for a ceasefire in Ukraine; see Vol. 66, No. 37‑38, pp. 3‑6, and Vol. 67, No. 7, pp. 3‑7 – Trans.]. Right now freezing is not in our interests, since it will not achieve the goals of the special military operation [in Ukraine] related to our security.

Donald Trump sees that things are not working out very well for him, but he does not intend to pull out of the game – if only because of the upcoming midterm elections in the US. Furthermore, the US has its own interests in the Ukraine crisis. For instance, Washington would benefit from continuing to leverage Ukraine as a spoiler in relation to Russia.

For our part, we are playing this game with the Americans because it is necessary to lead the relationship between the two superpowers out of the crisis: Under the [former US president Joe] Biden administration, [relations] hit rock bottom, which simply calls global security into question. In addition, dialogue with the US is also in our interests because there are a slew of issues for discussion besides Ukraine – both unresolved problems and mutually beneficial areas.

This waffling – steps to meet us halfway and then attempts to exert pressure on us – will continue as long as the parties have intentions and opportunities to achieve their goals. Russia will stay true to its security interests. Under this logic, the current situation will continue until, for example, the Western side comes to understand that the crisis is moving in the wrong direction, and that it is high time to finally settle it. Then the waffling might stop, and we might reach a settlement and start a serious conversation about security issues at least on the European continent.

‘The reason for the long, drawn-out settlement process is a lack of trust on both sides.’

Pavel Koshkin, research fellow at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Georgy Arbatov Institute for US and Canadian Studies. – Donald Trump’s vacillations from dialogue with us to attempts to exert pressure result from his lack of understanding of what he wants. To be more precise, he does not understand how to achieve what he wants. The US president has put forward the idea of peace in Ukraine, but he has no clue how to end the conflict: There are too many nuances and pitfalls.

Furthermore, controversial steps are his style of doing business: He is trying to demonstrate unpredictability to look like a dangerous opponent. In reality, behind his bravado lurks a lack of clear understanding of how to talk with us. The problem is largely that Donald Trump has very few Russia experts: There is simply nowhere for them to come from in his entourage, since [his entourage] includes Republican loyalists or representatives of the business community. [US presidential special envoy for the Middle East] Steve Witkoff, for one, who has a reputation as a Slavophile – with all due respect, I would not call him an expert on Russia.

As for Washington’s steps toward promoting dialogue and better relations with us, the Trump administration is acting that way not at all because it shares our country’s position: It is very important to understand this. Yes, there is a certain chemistry between Donald Trump and our President Vladimir Putin, and this inspires some hope. However, members of the Trump administration sympathize with neither the Russian leadership nor with Russia, but rather, the opposite is true. Still, unlike the previous administration, they, as well as Trump himself, prefer to take a realistic position.

Realism lies in the fact that the US and Russia are competitors and rivals, but Russia’s interests cannot be ignored, since we are a nuclear power capable of deterring the US and effectively competing with it. For this reason, the Trump administration prefers to abandon dangerous attempts to inflict a strategic defeat on us and to proceed from the reality on the ground.

When it comes to the show of toughness toward Russia, Donald Trump is thus scoring political points. The sanctions saga is geared more toward the domestic audience, playing to the electorate. After all, perception of Russia in the US is clearly negative, and the midterm elections will take place in one year, in November 2026.

Current speculation on whether Trump is “ours” or not is senseless. Donald Trump is definitely not “ours”: He is a Western politician/realist interested in situational cooperation. The here and now agenda – complex and multifactor – is what compels him to act that way.

In the broad sense, the reason for the long, drawn-out settlement process is a lack of trust on both sides, which is the most important ingredient for achieving this goal. The US has no trust because of its persistent, outdated cold war logic. For its part, Russia does not trust either the US or the collective West, since it has had extensive, bitter experience of shattered hopes ever since the 1990s. With the lack of trust, the current situation may continue for a long time – for example, until Russia achieves its goals by methods other than diplomacy.

‘Diplomacy will get a real chance for success when the Ukrainian front begins to crumble.’

Dmitry Suslov, deputy director of the National Research University Higher School of Economics’ Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies, deputy research programs director at the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy and an expert with the Valdai [International Discussion] Club. – The point of Donald Trump’s game is to force us to make some concessions through what he believes is moderate, measured pressure. For instance, to make Russia agree to a ceasefire along the current contact line or at least abandon its demand for Ukraine’s demilitarization. That said, it is important for Donald Trump not to break up dialogue with Russia: He is not prepared to burn bridges and irretrievably destroy relations between the two powers, which have already hit rock bottom.

At the same time, the Trump administration continues to exert pressure on Ukraine, as evidenced by, among other things, Trump’s rather tense meeting with [Ukrainian President Vladimir] Zelensky, after which the latter left Washington without the Tomahawks he had asked for [see Vol. 77, No. 39, pp. 3‑6].

The Trump administration’s interest is to reach the earliest possible ceasefire without eliminating the root causes of the conflict. As far as Russia is concerned, it is of principal importance for it to achieve all goals set by President Vladimir Putin before the special military operation, including the demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine.

Russia understands that if a ceasefire is achieved without any preliminary conditions for a final peace settlement [and] without prerequisites for the demilitarization of Ukraine, nothing good will come of it. On the contrary, the West will continue to pump Ukraine full of weapons [and] prepare it for revanche against Russia.

At the same time, Russia is not interested in the Trump administration returning to the Biden administration’s irresponsible policy, fraught with global consequences. Therefore, Russia continues dialogue even amid increasing pressure. We are sending signals that we will not make serious concessions and will not yield to pressure. We keep reiterating that US measures are painful to the Trump administration, among others. For example, sanctions against our oil companies are fraught with global oil price rises and fuel inflation in the US itself, which is dangerous for the Trump administration ahead of the midterm elections.

Be that as it may, by all indications, the Trump administration will keep trying to promote dialogue with Russia, but it will keep ratcheting up pressure on us. The most likely scenario for this waffling to stop and diplomacy to get a real chance for success is when the Ukrainian front begins to crumble. This is when the US’s adoption of the Russian position and Washington’s successful efforts to force Ukraine to peace on Russian terms could be portrayed not as Trump’s capitulation to Putin, but as Ukraine’s salvation by Trump. Naturally, [Trump] will derive domestic and foreign policy benefits from that, taking credit for victory.