From Republic.ru, April 24, 2025, https://republic.ru/posts/115597. Condensed text:

. . . Despite Donald Trump’s upbeat statements, the meeting of high-ranking representatives from the US, Ukraine and several European countries in London did not take place. Citing sources, The Wall Street Journal reported that the US’s final proposal on Ukraine included recognition of the Crimea as part of Russia and blocking [Ukraine] from joining NATO.

Clearly, while Kiev is willing to discuss the latter “option” – that is, replacing Art. 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty [i.e., collective defense – Trans.] with security guarantees from major European states, such as Great Britain, France, Germany, Italy and Poland – it categorically rejects the idea of officially giving up the Crimea [and] recognizing it as part of Russia. . . .

Of course, Trump and his team of amateur conspiracy theorists are ready to recognize the Crimea as part of Russia – because [of the slogan] “America First.” Other countries interest him only insofar as they benefit America – or actually, insofar as they serve his own interests. However, that is unacceptable to Ukraine and Europe.

So the conjuring trick with peace in Ukraine, which Donald Trump initially promised to perform within 24 hours, has failed several weeks later. As they say in such cases: The magician was drunk and the trick failed. However, the Washington “magician” is not known for alcoholism. It is quite possible that his perception of the outside world is simply a far cry from reality, [including his perception] of Ukraine and Russia, as well as of his own country’s potential.

Three months have passed since the “magician” returned to the Oval Office, and we can see that Trump is already prepared to reverse gears. Shortly before the “Easter truce” that Putin suddenly announced on April 19, the US president said: “Now if for some reason one of the two parties makes it very difficult, we’re just going to say, ‘You’re foolish, you’re fools, you’re horrible people,’ and we’re going to just take a pass.”

In other words, you are bad – I won’t play with you anymore. Much ado about nothing!

Actually, Trump’s remarks prepare the ground for getting out of the game after failing to achieve anything while trying not to lose face.

One reason for the fiasco that Trump and his team of conspiracy theorists have suffered in Ukraine is that they were truly convinced that threatening Zelensky with stopping US arms supplies and the transfer of intelligence – and carrying out that threat if he balked – would be all it would take for the Ukrainian president and the UAF to raise their hands and accept all of Putin’s conditions.

As we know, Washington made good on its threats, but Ukraine and its leadership, much to the Americans’ surprise, refused to capitulate. What’s more, it suddenly turned out that there are people even on Trump’s team who take a sober view of the situation. CIA Director John Ratcliffe said during a US Senate hearing on March 25: “The Ukrainian people and the Ukrainian military have been underestimated for a period of several years now. From my reflections in observing, from an intelligence standpoint, I’m convinced that they will fight with their bare hands if they have to, if they don’t have terms that are acceptable [to an enduring peace].”

Furthermore, the suspension of US military aid and intelligence to Ukraine made the Trump administration look bad – like traitors of the free world. Eventually, [arms] supplies were resumed, but it turned out that now Washington had no leverage over Russia either.

As for the “Easter truce,” which Putin unexpectedly proclaimed on April 19, declaring a truce unilaterally, without any preliminary talks with the opposite side, on the same day it was announced, was just a way of creating a news opportunity to announce later that the “Kiev regime” is not ready for peace.

Tellingly, Putin, who all of a sudden announced this “truce” on camera during his meeting with Russian General Staff chief [Army Gen. Valery] Gerasimov, in the same breath boasted that “the situation along the contact line***is developing favorably for us; Russian troops are confidently advancing, step by step.” Gerasimov also said that “all six groupings of (Russian – Ed.) troops are conducting offensive operations along 11 directions.”

Nevertheless, Zelensky said that Ukraine will be ready to join the ceasefire if it is in deed, not in word, and made a counterproposal: to extend the “Easter truce” by 30 days.

In reality, the “Easter truce” manifested itself only in a halt in long-range strikes. It went almost unnoticed on the front line.

As of 8 p.m. on Sunday, “the Russian Army has broken Putin’s ceasefire more than 2,000 times. Russia has already carried out 67 assault operations on our positions along various directions, most of all in the operational area around [the city of] Pokrovsk. [There have been] 1,355 shelling attacks, including 713 with heavy weapons and 673 FPV [first-person-view] drones,” Zelensky said on the evening of April 20.

At the same time, the Ukrainian leader stated that there were long-range strikes over Easter. He wrote: “So, this is the format of silence that has been achieved and is the easiest to continue. Ukraine is proposing to halt all strikes with long-range drones and missiles on civilian infrastructure for at least 30 days, with the possibility of extension.”

Asked whether the truce would expire overnight on April 21, Putin’s press secretary [Dmitry] Peskov said that “there have been no other orders.” . . .

At the same time, for some reason, the number of killed and injured civilians was not disclosed.

In other words, while Putin’s “Easter truce” decree initially looked like a typical FSB [Federal Security Service] provocation aimed at convincing the world that Ukraine does not want the war to end, 36 hours later – the period for which it was declared – this became even more obvious.

Right now, Putin believes that he is winning slowly but surely and that by piling Ukrainian fields high with tens of thousands of his military service personnel, he will be able to achieve (or try to achieve) his war goals, which he is currently formulating as follows: dismembering Ukraine; taking full control of four [Ukrainian] provinces (Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson and Zaporozhye) in addition to the occupied Crimea; changing Ukraine’s leadership; disarming the Ukrainian Armed Forces; [and] turning unoccupied parts [of Ukraine] into a Russian protectorate with neutral status.

At present, as far as one can tell, this is his maximum plan with regard to Ukraine. However, if all these goals cannot be achieved, then, as a consolation prize, Putin is hoping to grab at least some additional parts of the aforementioned Ukrainian provinces with meat-grinding attacks.

In his hope to get in Putin’s good graces by selling him the pelt of Ukraine that isn’t even dead yet, Trump looked ridiculous. He is not a warrior, but a merchant. He is not going to seriously fight with anyone. Putin has already realized this and felt his superiority over [Trump].

The US’s withdrawal from Ukraine talks will be the beginning of Trump’s catastrophe on the international stage. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said that America has many other priorities around the world besides Ukraine. Let’s see what these priorities are, apart from the occupation of Greenland and Canada. . . .

By all indications, Trump has not yet shed the illusion that he can somehow or other lure Putin over to America’s side in its confrontation with China. The Kremlin ruler has figured the US president out, and he is easily manipulating old Donald in his own interests. For instance, when Putin announced the “Easter truce,” he did not fail to thank the “Washington apparatchiks” and President Trump personally among those who are seeking “a just settlement of the Ukraine crisis by peaceful means.”

However, no matter how many times Putin receives Witkoff at the Kremlin, the US has nothing to tempt him into pulling out of the strategic alliance with China and banding together with America against [China]. What can Washington offer Moscow in this regard? Lifting US sanctions on Russia? Well, first of all, Russian-US trade has never come close to Russia’s trade with China. And second of all, Trump recently extended these sanctions for another year.

Meanwhile, Putin, who is dropping vague hints supporting Trump’s illusions about the possibility of a US-Russian alliance against China, is rooting around in quite a different area.

Some time ago, it was learned that Russia requested Indonesia’s permission to station its military aircraft, including Tu‑95 strategic bombers, as well as Il‑76 military cargo aircraft, at the Manuhua Air Force Base. The Indonesian air base is relatively close to Australia’s northern coast, as well as to Guam, a US territory, with its two American military bases. It is unclear how the request will play out, but the very intention to house [Russian] strategic aircraft right under the Americans’ noses speaks volumes about the real vector of Russian policy compared to the compliments that Putin periodically pays Trump.

Trump is happy to offer the Russian dictator the dismemberment of Ukraine. However, not only Ukraine and its Armed Forces, but also Europe are rejecting this option. Furthermore, even as a purely hypothetical scenario, that would not force Putin to abandon his alliance with Beijing.

In the European theater, Trump’s policy will lead America to yet another catastrophe. The [US’s] refusal to defend Europe has already prompted [the latter] to build its own armed forces. In a few years, the EU, which has already allocated 800 billion euros to rearm its militaries and support Ukraine, will turn from an economic giant on a par with the US into a global military power jointly with Great Britain, Canada [and] Australia.

Meanwhile, amid an escalation with China, Trump’s isolationist policy toward Europe and [his] openly boorish policy toward Canada and Australia will cost the US its important allies.

What’s more, all of Trump’s insane actions with regard to China will only prod Beijing to resolve the Taiwan problem by force. In that case, the US will have just two options left: It can either flee in shame from the island with which it has a [mutual defense] treaty whereby [the US] will provide military aid if [Taiwan] is attacked, or it can become involved in a very nasty war with no allies.

On the other hand, China will have allies, including North Korea, which is currently providing the bulk of artillery shells to Russia (up to 100% of some types of shells), and Russia itself, which has gained experience in modern warfare in Ukraine.

And what will happen with the Russia-Ukraine war?

Russia will continue to strike residential areas in Ukraine, and it will keep trying to advance. Most likely, with the same results as before. In other words, it will try to move forward at the cost of huge losses.

With the worsening economic situation in the US caused by Trump’s tariff policy, he will certainly not refuse to sell US weapons to Ukraine – probably via the Europeans, but possibly even directly.

And in the fall or winter, after losing tens of thousands more of his soldiers, Putin will say: “We have always been in favor of resolving the ‘Ukraine conflict’ by peaceful means.” After that, real negotiations will begin.