From Nezavisimaya gazeta, Aug. 20, 2026, p. 2. Complete text:
Six months ago, on Feb. 19, Donald Trump announced on board Air Force One that Iran had “10, 15 days, pretty much maximum” to “make a deal,” and if Iran did not meet this deadline, “really bad things” would happen to it. As is clear in retrospect, this was not an ultimatum, but a search for an alibi for posterity: Everyone needed to know that the American president had honestly tried to reach an agreement “the right way.” It is possible that the order to prepare for the strikes that shook Iran on Feb. 28 [see Vol. 78, No. 9-10, pp. 3-6] was given that very day on the same aircraft. Trump, of course, anticipating his moment of triumph, had no idea what would happen next – what “very bad things” would soon happen and to whom.
The war with Iran, no matter how it ends, is destined to go down in history as a bitter reminder of the long-term cost of decisions made by a politician out of touch with reality. Six months later, no one but Trump is talking about the original goal of the “deal” he put forward (curtailing the Iranian nuclear program). Just unblock the Strait of Hormuz! There is no more important task for American diplomacy right now.
US allies in the Arab world are also racking their brains over how to ensure their security in a situation where, as it turns out, the American defense “umbrella” can’t protect them from anything. Drones and missiles attacking Dubai and Riyadh have paved the way for an alliance between Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. This is already worrying Israel, for whose protection, American gossips claim, Trump started his Iranian adventure. Turkey is getting stronger. Recep Tayyip Erdogan is in power there, with his ambitions, anti-Israel rhetoric and dreams of reviving the greatness of the Ottoman Empire. Could it be that Middle Eastern radical groups will shift from Iran to Turkey? Hamas is already prepared to move its headquarters to Istanbul. Turkey, by the way, is a NATO member and still (albeit now only in theory) seeks to join the European Union.
America’s European allies are now faced with a new Turkish problem, at a time when they were already not thrilled with the [Iran] war. Europe has suffered significant material losses due to the cessation of stable oil supplies from the Persian Gulf countries. The Europeans have had to sit through hysterics from Trump, who is dissatisfied that they did not support his strikes on Iran, or that they did not support them in the right way. Moreover, every American missile fired at Iranian cities is one less potential missile transferred by the US to Ukraine. Perhaps Russia is the winner, and the reasoning behind Trump’s war is to do the Kremlin a favor? It wouldn’t seem so. A reduction in American arms supplies to Ukraine, if it actually happens (it hasn’t yet), will only lead to an increase in supplies from European NATO countries. Trump won’t be able to deprive Ukraine of defense services that only the US can provide, even if he wants to. In that case, there is always Congress, the president’s Republican Party, and American society, where a pro-Ukrainian consensus reigns. Even the rise in global oil prices hasn’t proven to be much of a boost for the Russian economy, as the ability to take advantage of it is affected by factors that haven’t gone away. These include sanctions, the closing of Europe’s “premium” market to Russia and much more.
Trump’s decision to start a war with Iran set off a chain of events that have not only failed to strengthen but ultimately weakened America, along with the entire existing system of international relations. There are many losers here, and almost no one has gained any advantage from the situation. We must remember that it is impossible to talk about this war in the past tense. Thus, the world has yet to experience all of its tragic consequences.