Letter From the Editors

On April 1, President Trump finally delivered his first address to the nation about the Iran war. But, as Gennady Petrov reports, the speech did little to clarify Americans’ concerns about the war’s goals and timelines or the price of oil, which is skyrocketing due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. And while Trump said nothing about reaching an agreement with Iran during the speech, he did indicate his readiness to do so in a Truth Social post later that evening. Experts interviewed by Izvestia say that Trump could still declare victory even if he can’t get the blockade lifted, since he can claim to have taken out much of Iran’s ballistic and nuclear programs, and its leadership. Furthermore, as expert Andrei Chuprygin quips, “Trump wouldn’t be Trump if he couldn’t declare a victory without having achieved one.”

However, as expert Dmitry Kornev explains, a looming missile shortage could be what ultimately ends the war: The Gulf monarchies and the US have only about 400 missiles left, which, Kornev says, isn’t enough for even one week of “intense combat.” This leaves the Gulf states stuck between a rock and a hard place as they face the prospect of “being left one on one with a formidable adversary.”

Similarly, Armenia is also in a tight spot. In its case, though, it is not dodging missiles but navigating a delicate pathway to greater European integration while maintaining its ties to former Soviet countries. Its tricky position was highlighted during Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s recent visit to Moscow, where he met with Vladimir Putin to discuss strengthening cooperation. While conceding that Armenia has the right to develop relations with the EU, Putin warned Pashinyan: “[T]his must be said honestly and up front, from the get-go, if you will: It will not be possible to be a member of the EU Customs Union and the EaEU at the same time.” This comment sounds particularly ominous as pro-Russia parties are jockeying to oust Pashinyan in Armenia’s upcoming parliamentary elections.

But Putin himself is also piloting his ship through rough waters as he grapples with Russia’s response to the Iran war. As Harry Hult writes for NGE, “Russia is stuck uncomfortably between supporting a key ally and maintaining favor with the White House.” Still, Putin’s sanctions bind appears to be loosening thanks to an “unexpected financial windfall due to soaring crude oil prices” and the US’s lifting of some sanctions on Russian oil. In an article for AiF, Georgy Bovt draws parallels between the current oil crisis and the one in the early 1970s, when the Soviet Union became a key energy supplier. But the “gold rush” of foreign currency eventually subsided, and it wasn’t long before the Soviet Union found itself with a hard currency deficit. So while Putin appears to be getting his money for nothing in the current crisis, he should not forget the lessons of the past.

Meanwhile, the situation with digital rights in Russia is continuing to deteriorate. Kommersant reports that a new draft government resolution is taking aim at ISPs that do not restrict users’ access to VPNs. This move would make it virtually impossible for Russians to access apps that are not on the government’s “whitelist.”

In a related development, Apple has shut down payment processing in Russia through its App Store, its last remaining service in Russia after it officially ended sales there following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. As Yana Zarechnaya’s analysis of the love affair between Apple and Russia illustrates, however, business ultimately trumps all moral and ethical concerns. But, as Apple’s experience in Russia shows, in the end, when you’re dealing with autocrats, politics always trumps even business. As for the average Russian, all this probably leaves them mournfully singing: “I want my, I want my, I want my Apple Pay!”