Letter From the Editors

This was a good week in international affairs to put one’s best face forward. Yes, that’s “best face” rather than “best foot” – because it was an even better week for diplomats to be tactless and two-faced.

At the Munich Security Conference, at least, the audience appreciated seeing Marco Rubio rather than J.D. Vance representing the US at the podium. “I’m not sure you heard the sigh of relief in this hall,” gushed conference chair Wolfgang Ischinger during his subsequent interview of Rubio. Vedomosti’s Roman Romanov, however, spoke for many in noting that “Rubio, despite the relative mildness of his wording, largely repeated certain talking points from US Vice-President James Vance.” And according to academic Vadim Kozlov, even this vibe shift is only taking place because “The US is still not prepared to lose Europe strategically, considering it to be its sphere of influence.”

In case there were any questions about Rubio’s motives, NG’s Gennady Petrov notes that “Rubio took an entirely eloquent step testifying to the true nature of the current White House administration’s attitude toward the European Union. Immediately following the Munich Security Conference . . . the head of American diplomacy set out for Slovakia and Hungary” to shore up his boss’s ideological allies, especially Orban, whose Fidesz party risks losing power in this year’s elections. “To avoid being accused of interfering in the country’s internal affairs, Rubio did not directly say that such an outcome would be undesirable for Trump, but he did hint at it,” Petrov clarifies.

While the secretary of state is acting as precinct captain for Budapest, scholar Stefan Wolff notes by contrast, “The inaugural meeting of Donald Trump’s Board of Peace in Washington on Thursday capped a busy week for US diplomacy, though not necessarily for the country’s professional diplomats, who have been largely sidelined by the US president’s personal envoys, his former real-estate business partner Steve Witkoff and his son-in-law Jared Kushner.” As multiple sources note, the duo was on double duty in Geneva on Feb. 17, jumping between the role of mediator for Russia-Ukraine talks and negotiating party (indirectly through Omani diplomats) with Iran.

The Iranians are surely a bit wary, since the last time they agreed to talks, the US launched a surprise attack. But since those strikes knocked out Tehran’s nuclear program, the sides might feel less urgency about signing a deal.

The impasse in Russia-Ukraine talks, for its part, was somewhat enlivened by the return of chief Kremlin negotiator Vladimir Medinsky, which all sources agree signals a shift from territorial disputes to even more intractable arguments over cultural issues. Valdai expert Andrei Kortunov, for example, speculates that “Medinsky’s participation may also mean that the Russian side has raised the issue of the status of the Russian language and the canonical Orthodox Church.” The former issue, at least, could be addressed by Rada bills to repeal specific laws, but what exactly are Messrs. Witkoff and Kushner supposed to do about the Orthodox schism? Call a synod? Rarely in negotiations does a poison pill come with such a bold, cartoonish skull and crossbones.

So, as has been the case since day one of Trump’s return to office (when the war was supposed to end) yet more clearly than ever, Russia keeps making demands Ukraine cannot accept, and Kiev refuses to consider Moscow’s “root causes.” What’s in it for Washington to keep these talks going?

According to Petrov’s America-watching sources, “Trump needs clear victories now more than ever. The scandals related to the Epstein files . . . and US Immigration and Customs Enforcement tactics are snowballing and directly affecting Trump’s reputation – and this with a new campaign cycle kicking off in a few months for the Congressional elections that will take place in November.” If Ukraine isn’t Trump’s ticket out of Dodge, then what is? Izvestia’s Maksim Bazanov concludes, “The unpredictability of American politics and of Trump in particular could fundamentally alter the balance of power.”