Letter From the Editors

They say one catches more flies with honey than with vinegar, but few leaders dare test this hypothesis in the field of diplomacy. Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan, in particular, stands out in his efforts to sweeten the acrid aftermath of conflict with Azerbaijan. Since the Azerbaijanis see the OSCE Minsk Group as a biased factor in the peace process, Pashinyan has obliged them: “If we really are turning the page on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict – and we are . . . We are proposing to sign the peace agreement and, simultaneously, dissolve the Minsk Group.”

The risk, of course, is that Azerbaijan could smell blood and press for even more concessions, but refusing this deal would leave it exposed as well. “If the [Minsk Group] is preserved, Russia, France and the US could someday recall the Karabakh Armenians and start using their fate to pressure Azerbaijan,” analyst Mikael Zolyan explains.

Famed dealmaker Donald Trump has also taken a conciliatory and understanding tone – at least when it comes to talks with Russia. The challenge, according to scholar Vladimir Vinokurov, is this: “The Russian side believes that trust and full bilateral relations must be restored first before moving to resolve issues of strategic stability, including the Ukraine crisis.” And now the hotlines are open, the consulates are being restored, and hockey matches are in the works. Even with regard to Ukraine, NG writes that Trump’s team is relaying the Russian perspective clearly: “The condition for peace should be the transfer to Russia of four territories: Zaporozhye and Kherson Provinces and the Donetsk and Lugansk people’s republics. It is not clear, however, why the Crimea wasn’t on this list. It is apparently being recognized as Russian by default.”

This level of understanding stands in marked contrast to Trump’s negotiations with the EU, where, notwithstanding a temporary reduction of the initial “liberation day” tariffs from 20% to 10%, the US president appears to be full of vinegar. Even the choice of a European negotiator was a challenge. As expert Sergei Shein explains, Trump is “not particularly fond” of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, but perhaps the EU has found its silver bullet in Italian PM Giorgia Meloni, who is “really the best option here for establishing a dialogue specifically on tariffs. She is right-wing and mainstream. She is not Macron or Scholz, who are very ideologically different from Trump.”

While Meloni might be the most appealing messenger, pushback against Trump’s combativeness, which limits her ability to make concessions, was already bubbling before the tariffs were announced. Von der Leyen set the tone: “We will approach these negotiations from a position of strength. Europe holds a lot of cards, from trade to technology to the size of our market. But this strength is also built on our readiness to take firm countermeasures.” According to Politico, European diplomats are now spoiling for a fight: “This could be a classic case of dealing with a schoolyard bully – you have to punch them in the nose.”

Chinese Ambassador to Moscow Zhang Hanhui seizes on the same label, condemning the US tariff policy as “a classic manifestation of unilateralism, protectionism and economic bullying, which flagrantly violates the legitimate rights and interests of all countries, undermines the rules-based multilateral trading system and destabilizes the global economic order.” In this op-ed for Izvestia, presumably addressed to an international audience, Zhang concludes by contrasting the policies of the two superpowers: “The US, by putting its objectives above the public good of the global community and acting against the legitimate interests of all the world’s countries for the sake of its hegemonic ambitions, will inevitably face even stronger opposition from the international community. China will consistently embody genuine multilateralism, firmly uphold the global trade order, strengthen mutually beneficial cooperation with partners, and make a stabilizing contribution to the growth of international trade.” Let’s see which one attracts more flies.