From Vedomosti, March 4, 2026, https://www.vedomosti.ru/politics/articles/2026/03/04/1180514-kak-voina-v-irane-obrushila-avtoritet-kitaya. Complete text:
Mao Ning, official spokeswoman of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, announced that Beijing is calling for “all sides” to immediately cease hostilities and ensure the safety of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. As Xinhua reports, she announced this on March 3, the day after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) released a statement saying that any ship attempting to pass through the strait would be fired upon. Mao stressed that “all relevant parties” are responsible for ensuring stable energy supplies.
Tehran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which previously handled up to 15% of the world’s oil supplies and up to 20% of liquefied natural gas volumes, after the start of the US and Israeli military operation against it that resulted in the death of Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. This happened approximately one month before the first full-fledged summit between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping of Trump’s second term, which is scheduled to take place in Beijing. As the White House has already announced, his visit is planned for March 31 to April 2. But China has prudently not confirmed this information yet, which leaves open the possibility of cancellation. Moreover, an ex-official close to the trip’s organizers on the US side told South China Morning Post that the Chinese were “furious” about how the details of protocol for the visit were being handled on the US side by “a handful of people who have never done this before.” At the same time, the press is reporting that the sides may be working on a major investment agreement.
Since then, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has repeatedly reiterated to his counterpart his country’s official position, which essentially expresses good intentions and condemns the actions of the US and Israel, but does not suggest that Beijing will actually interfere. China is hoping that “Iran will be able to maintain the stability of the state and society in this difficult situation, will respect the concerns of neighboring states, and will ensure the safety of Chinese nationals and Chinese organizations on its territory.” At the initiative of West Jerusalem, Wang spoke with his Israeli counterpart Gideon Sa’ar on March 3 and expressed his opposition to strikes on Iran.
Moreover, China has built a very close strategic partnership – both political and economic – with Iran. For example, 80% to 90% of all Iranian oil exports have been going to China, which accounts for about 13% of the volume purchased by sea. In 2021, the parties signed a treaty on comprehensive cooperation in 20 industries for 25 years (Western media wrote about China’s plans to invest up for $400 billion over these years). It is known that, at the time, the parties agreed to continue military and military-technical cooperation, but the details are not clear. In recent years, American media outlets have written in particular about the delivery of HQ-9 air defense systems and a possible contract for J-10 fighter jets
The Diplomat writes about why the operation against Iran has already dealt a serious blow to China’s global influence. “For Beijing, this is a catastrophic geoeconomic earthquake. China’s entire Middle Eastern architecture has just suffered a fatal blow. As the shockwaves radiate from Tehran, Beijing faces the immediate fracturing of its energy security, the collapse of its defense exports and the rupture of its Belt and Road Initiative (Iran participates in this initiative – Ed.).”
But the most serious consequence could be damage to its reputation: In recent years, China has positioned itself as a leader of the Global South countries. In January 2026 alone, it lost Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, who was well disposed to it. Then Panama’s Supreme Court revoked, without the right of appeal, the right of Hong Kong holding company CK Hutchinson Holdings (owned by billionaire Li Ka-shing) to operate two ports in the Panama Canal. Moreover, since the early 2020s, China has had the second largest navy in the world, with a permanent presence in the Indian Ocean and a military base in Djibouti.
Zhao Minghao, a professor at Shanghai’s Fudan University admits that “the strikes against Iran and a possible change in the regime will have a major impact on China’s interests.” However, Zha Daojiong, an expert at Peking University, told Reuters that the Chinese government will not feel obligated to help Iran in the conflict, calling the West’s narrative that China is allied with Iran a “purely rhetorical construction.”
Having now unleashed its greatest conflict since 2003 (when there was a ground operation in Iraq that led to the overthrow of Saddam Hussein), the US may now face problems of a different nature. As The Chosun Ilbo wrote on March 3, American THAAD and Patriot antimissile systems, which were deployed to South Korea in 2018 amid a diplomatic spat with China, may be sent to the Middle East. Reuters also cites an anonymous source as saying that the US’s main problem from the escalating conflict with Iran could be that difficulties quickly replenishing munitions stockpiles could make it more difficult to deter China from military action against Taiwan in the medium term.
Trump later wrote on March 3 that US munitions stockpiles have “never been higher or better.” Trump then wrote, however, that we “are not where we want to be. Much additional high-grade weaponry is stored for us in outlying countries.”
On Feb. 4, after his most recent telephone call with Xi, Trump wrote on Truth Social that “many important subjects were discussed, including Trade, Military,” as well as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Iran, China’s purchase from the US of oil and gas and additional volumes of agricultural products and, in the opposite direction, the supply of aircraft engines. The topic of Taiwan also came up and, according to a New York Times report from Feb. 28, the White House delayed the largest one-time package of arms sales to the island, which had been reported in December 2025.
In terms of the next talks between China and the US, it has already been announced that Chinese Vice-Premier He Lifeng, who is responsible for economic affairs, and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will meet in Paris in mid-March 2026.
For now, China has lost hardly anything economically from the war in Iran, says Sergei Lukonin, director of the Center for Asia-Pacific Studies’ Chinese economics and politics division at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economics and International Relations For example, Beijing has increased its strategic oil reserves above the norm, to six months, and China will be able to find a replacement for its not-so-large share of Iranian oil from other suppliers, including Russia, if necessary. At the same time, Beijing has always seen Iran as a potential source of instability, and investments there have primarily been made by private companies.
But the expert agrees that the crisis in the Middle East is very difficult for China’s reputation – and, to a certain extent, for Russia’s. In particular, it has become clear that none of the associations in which China claims a leading role (BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization) is capable of playing a role in such a crisis. Beijing is prepared to sell its products and buy resources, but it will not defend anyone, Lukonin said. “For now, China is fundamentally incapable of responding to crises,” he said. And if Iran falls, another hotbed of terrorism could emerge there, which, after Syria, would further complicate life for Russia and China on the continent.
The tactic China has chosen stems from the fact that Beijing is certain it has not yet reached a level of power that would allow it to unconditionally resolve critical situations in its favor. It is likely that China is hoping for some kind of future agreement with the US and does not want to spoil the atmosphere in relations ahead of Trump’s visit. But in such a situation, Trump’s possible arrival will only further damage China’s reputation, Lukonin said.